Friday, January 10, 2003

 
Clinton II or Empty Suit?

Zogby shows North Carolina senator and presidential hopeful John Edwards surging in the 2004 primary polls matching Massachusetts Senator John Kerry with 9 percent of the vote, up from just 2 percent back in July. (Lieberman leads with 11 percent.)

Is this guy for real? Time will tell. In the meantime, some have gone so far as to compare him with Bill Clinton. Both being young, southern, "New" Democrats with fire in their bellies. In '92, Bill Clinton reached out to middle class voters, talking of "putting people first." In '02 John Edwards repeatedly presents himself as a champion of "regular people."

In contrast, some, mostly Republicans, have referred to Edwards as, "Unaccomplished and not ready for prime time." and "professes to be a southern moderate, but votes like a northeastern liberal". Of course it is unnecessary here to point out Bush's gross lack of experience and intelligence when he ran in 2000 or that according to the GOP spin machine, everyone to the left of Zell Miller votes like a commie lib.

Interestingly, the GOPsters started pouring on the criticism only moments after Edwards declared his candidacy. Such was not the case with the other declared candidates. Edward's spokesman David Ginsberg was quick to note that such actions indicate a sense of fear from the administration. Indeed, Republican officials have admitted that they find the Edward's candidacy threatening because he is "undefined".

Clinton and Republicans aside, let's take a deeper look at the North Carolina Senator.

To start, I heard on the tube (sorry no source) that Edwards has a headstart on the fund raising and is poised to take his best shot. The right wing is already taking pot-shots at him, tagging him an "empty suit", noting that his hair is his greatest asset, pointing out his lack of foreign policy experience (as if their last candidate could even point out Canada on a map) and of course riding the fact that he was (shock of shocks) a "TRIAL Lawyer". Oh, What a world!

Now, for those who don't remember, Edwards started off like a rocket in the primary speculation game. Despite a gross lack of name recognition and political experience, he was touted as the next great hope. A young, driven, charismatic, visionary Southern Democrat. Somewhere along the line however, he began to fall out of favor with the Democratic insiders (at least in the blogsphere). The media started ignoring his policy speeches and didn't even bother to lie about the cost of his haircuts. Hmmm. He seemed finished before he started.

Now, with a media and grassroots resurgence (see DailyKos ) Johnny Boy is looking good again.

"Great press week; ABC interview; not too much hostile counterfire from the Reptiles. A smooth rollout. Didn't get too chopped up about being a trial attorney (editor's note: But just wait 'til the Reptiles start morphing him into Johnnie Cochrane.) Good showing in new Zogby poll. As the tall moderate from the upper South, benefits from Gore's disappearing act."

Unfortunately, Democrats alone don't determine the presidency. Therefore it's important to see how Edwards might be perceived across the nation. I'll give my impression regarding his attempts to position himself, some of his strengths and weaknesses and probably more of his policy than you care to digest in one reading and you can decide for yourself whether this guy is the real deal.

POSITIONING

"You know why Americans think many Democrats want to spend too much money? They do. You know why Americans think many Republicans are too close to corporate interests? They are." - John Edwards

Obviously an attempt to crush any attempts to label him a "tax and spend" Democrat. Indeed, Edwards has taken great pains to position himself as a fiscal disciplinarian and has taken the bold but necessary step of calling for a halt to portions of the Bush tax cut to the wealthy. (See "policies" below)

To quash any thoughts of labeling him a "New England (type) liberal", Edwards promotes himself as both a "Representative of North Carolina Values", which, if believed, will resonate nicely with southern moderates, and as a "populist champion of the people". Of course running as a populist will work well with the progressive base. But again, talk is cheap. My take is that he is a moderate Democrat (otherwise he certainly would not have won a senate seat in North Carolina) Indeed, although some of his social ideas are certainly populist according to my definition, his views on Homeland Defense and Foreign policy are much more moderate. (Again, See "Policies" below. From now on whenever it looks like I should show some of his policies to support my assumptions, please pretend that I wrote "See policies below")

Taking a more critical stance, I see his populist approach as sometimes smacked down by his "New Democrat" hammer. For example, he seems to play to the White House line regarding Iraq and North Korea. (Of course I would be much more likely to believe what he had to say about the true threats from these nations than George "It's all about oil, revenge and profit" Bush and Co.). Also, his ideas on domestic security, which includes the creation of a "Homeland Intelligence Agency" and ID requirements for all persons wishing to obtain "official" US identification (licenses, passports and the like) seem to stray from the staunch progressive line. In addition, He suggests ways to make ousting bad teachers a simpler process, which, although certainly not the strict, pro-union line, it is not necessarily a bad thing. He offers commonsense on an issue that might simultaneously quell anti-union (specificly anti-teacher's union) rhetoric and benefit our children. Many of these stances, however, would seem to appeal nicely to moderates, a group critical to election.

Even so, he will have to rely heavily on his charisma and powers of persuasion to appeal to both the progressive core and moderates. Nevertheless, if anyone in the current field can pull it off, I'd put my money on him.

The primary thorn that Edwards will have to spin correctly is that of his career background. Republicans are working overtime to promote Edward's trial lawyer background as that of a "vampire of the system" and a "hoaxster" with only one concern, fattening his pocket. Sounds like a bit of projection to me. Edwards is taking efforts to spin his trial lawyer experience as making him a "champion of the people", protecting David from Goliath. In recent press conferences, he has done this quite well, convincingly using his background as an asset, not a hindrance. Of course conservatives are going to demonize him but who cares what they think. They'll vote for the chimp anyway. Edwards simply has to make sure they're efforts are in vain when it comes to swing voters. Simple. Right?


PRO / STRENGTHS

The North Carolina Senator will have appeal throughout the south. Some don't know if he can even assure the capture of his own states' electoral votes. One thing he can assure us of, though, is that the southern states will favor him over Dashcle, Gephardt, Kerry, Lieberman or Dean. This would be especially important in such moderately conservative states as Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri and Louisiana and perhaps Colorado. Indeed, the last three Democrats elected president -- Bill Clinton of Arkansas, Jimmy Carter of Georgia and Lyndon Johnson of Texas -- were southerners who cracked the Republican political stranglehold in the South.


~ Edwards could have strong appeal in neighboring South Carolina, an early primary state, and the fact that he's running so high in the Zogby poll right now raises his profile at the national level and helps him raise more money.

~ He completely funded his own senate race in North Carolina. This tends to be a positive since there are usually far fewer favors owed to outside interests (if any).

~ Charismatic and energetic. A bit subjective, but seemingly the consensus.

~ Ideas, Ideas, Ideas spelled out and complete. If there was one thing that Democrats lacked in the 2002 elections (and I hope they learned their lesson) was the communication of any unique ideas. They hopped on the Bush bandwagon or perhaps rode against the Bush bandwagon, but without any alternative policy suggestions to note. Edwards has ideas. In my opinion, the only other primary candidate that sees with such focus and vision is Howard Dean and he has the "northeastern liberal" tag to contend with.

~ Lack of experience could be played as an entryway into the skin of a "political outsider" which for some reason tends to play well in politics. Such outsider tactics played a large part in the rise to power of Jimmy Carter, G. W. Bush and Rush Limbaugh.

~ Well versed in domestic policy.


CON / WEAKNESSES

~ He is a senator. In 1960, John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts was the last sitting senator to win the White House.

~ Lacks experience, particularly in the area of foreign policy. Bringing up the similar lack of experience in a particular prior elected president might help make the issue a non-issue.

~ Trial lawyer status will be pounded by conservatives and pundits and might effectively cloud any issues/policies that are actually meaningful to the presidency. Edwards, with some help might be able to spin his trial lawyer past into a populist endeavor.

~ Little national name recognition. However, this seems to be changing as we speak.


POLICIES AND IDEAS

Over the past year, Edwards has given four major policy speeches outlining his platform in the areas of Education, Homeland Defense and the Economy. Here, I will present the major points as well as links to their respective speeches.


EDUCATION

~ Launch a nationwide program that will pay for the education costs for students who make a five-year commitment to teach somewhere where top-flight teachers are in short supply. Provide a $5,000 home mortgage credit for teachers who buy homes in the poor communities where they teach.

~ Increase the teacher quality block grant to the states, doubling the current $3 billion spent on it.

~ While preserving due process, present teacher tenure reforms similar to North Carolina's, which allow for easier removal of failing teachers. This should be a condition for federal education funds.

~ Increase funding for public school choice programs by $1 billion -- and say to districts that need it most that if they provide universal public school choice, we'll help them pay for it.

~ Provide funding to help districts where school size has grown out of control -- to use the funds to build new schools, break up existing schools, or renovate and reopen old ones.

~ Double the funding for GEAR UP and expand funding for TRIO, programs that help prepare disadvantaged students for college.

~ Provide states with the resources to make the first year of tuition at every public university and community college free. In return, students will need to spend an average of 10 hours a week in work-study, service to their community or school, or a part-time job.

~ Increase Pell Grants and simplify education tax credits.

~ Create four-year scholarships for students who commit to working for five years after college to address America's homeland security needs.

~ Make all student loans direct student loans instead of government subsidized bank loans saving the US Government $2 billion per year

~ End early decision and "legacy" admissions to colleges. These give the most educated and well-off families an unfair leg up.


ECONOMY and GROWTH


Fiscal Responsibility

~ Put off additional cuts in the tax rates for families earning more than $200,000 per year and make middle class tax cuts permanent. We should not create new deductions for very high-income earners. And we should increase the estate tax exemption to at least $7 million per family in order to cover most farms and small business owners, but we should not repeal the estate tax entirely.

~ Cut the number of government employees and contractors outside defense and homeland security by at least 10 percent over the next 10 years.

~ Cut agencies that have outlived their usefulness, such as the Office of Thrift Supervision.

~ Stop the government from acting like a spendthrift when it buys products. All government contracts should be awarded based on a bidding process.

~ Close tax loopholes that are economically pointless at best and downright harmful at worst.

~ Eliminate tax shelters that serve little or no purpose but to provide a legal way for companies to hide their income. Too many people benefit from America's public investments and capital markets and then renounce their citizenship to avoid paying their fair share. That is a disgrace, and it certainly shouldn't be legal.

~ Reinstate real budget caps and permanently restoring pay-as-you-go budget enforcement rules.

~ Simplify the tax code. Tax simplification is a good idea when it encourages investment in our future and makes life easier for ordinary people. At the same time, tax reform cannot become an excuse to blow yet another hole in our budgets, or to shift taxes away from those who need a break the least.


Economic Stimulus

~ Provide relief to overburdened state budgets through Medicaid assistance and targeted Homeland security grants to prevent increases in property taxes or cuts in education programs, and to improve readiness for a terrorist attack.

~ Extend unemployment insurance.

~ Create a one-time refundable energy tax credit of $500 per family.

~ Increase the current depreciation bonus by 50 percent, but only until June 30, so every business with an investment plan on the shelf has an incentive to roll it out now.

~ Extend unemployment insurance for the people who have suffered most from the economic downturn.

~ Create a single education credit with a single set of definitions that every family can understand.


Corporate responsibility

~ Eliminate tax loopholes that allow companies to avoid taxes by renouncing their citizenship or moving overseas.

~ Eliminate corporate subsidies: Edwards endorses Senators McCain and Congressman Gephardt's proposal for a commission, similar to the base closing commission, to eliminate corporate subsidies.

~ Eliminate conflicts of interest undermining confidence: such as when investment banks do not clearly separate those giving advice about stocks from those selling stocks.

~ Promote pay for performance in the tax code encouraging more equitable pay levels for top executives.

~ Increase corporate disclosure including full disclose of the state of their pension plans, explanations of differences between the profits reported to the IRS and to shareholders, and a complete accounting of the pay received by executives and how it compares to that of the ordinary worker.


DOMESTIC DEFENSE

~ Disarm Iraq, peacefully if possible, but by force if necessary. Commit the maximum resources necessary to support cooperative threat reduction initiatives like Nunn-Lugar. (Note: I did not notice any mention of "Regime change")

~ Create a new relationship with Saudi Arabia, one that recognizes Saudi Arabia's tolerance for terrorists.

~ Create a new "Homeland Intelligence Agency" to replace the FBI as the primary domestic intelligence service. The FBI is a law enforcement agency not an intelligence agency.

~ Link all federal watch lists with each other and appropriate state and local databases in a national terrorism information network that key local officials can access.

~ Set national standards for official Id's: Require states to obtain real proof of identity before issuing official ID, and require biometric identifiers like fingerprints so nobody can use someone else's ID.

~ Increase the number of INS inspectors, Border Patrol agents, and State Department consular officials by at least 10,000. We should also triple the administration's budget for border control information technology.

~ For Chemical Plants (remember the devastation of Bhopal India): Set standards for physical security of plants, use of explosive chemicals and security procedures for handling and storing chemicals.

~ Accelerate research that will: show us how to make skyscrapers safer, and improve blast- and fire-resistant designs.

~ Provide funds for states that put those standards in their building codes.

~ We need to expand security at rail stations including more security offers, better fencing and bomb detection equipment, and improved ventilation and evacuation systems. And we need to support efforts to harden the resistance of bridges and tunnels to fire and explosion.

~ Give states an additional $1.5 billion in one-time aid they can use to hire and retain 75,000 cops, firefighters, and EMTs.

~ Expand the portion of the National Guard focused on domestic defense, without undercutting the essential mission of military readiness.


So there you have it. Edwards in a nutshell. As far as I know, he has no marketable (by the Republicans) skeletons in his past. The true test of his success will be his ability to spin his way through the negative propaganda.

To briefly (and unfairly) compare him with the rest of the field, I'll tell you this. Personally, John Edwards and Howard Dean are the only candidates that excite me. However, John Kerry and his sterling military record make me think that either he or possibly Graham with the Florida electoral votes and the relative southern appeal would have a strong shot at Bush on in 2004.

posted by Thomas Ball 10:28 AM

 
Catastrophic Employment Numbers

Nonfarm Payrolls for December dropped 101,000 after being expected up 21,000 by the markets. November Nonfarm Payrolls were revised downward by an additional 48,000 and October was revised down by 17,000. This totals a 166,000 loss in jobs! Don't let the unchanged unemployment rate (6.0%) fool you. Its stasis is a result of a concurrent drop in the pool of available workers. In other words, for one reason or another, two hundred thousand people have given up looking for jobs.

Hey! I have an idea, How about another tax cut for the wealthy Mr. Bush? Shithead!

posted by Thomas Ball 8:46 AM