Sunday, April 06, 2003

 
Specious Reasoning: Is Saddam Still Alive?

Has anyone noticed how the mainstream media (and Fox) have relentlessly tried to ensure everyone that the latest footage of Saddam could only be a fake and that the real Saddam must be dead? I’m sure you’ve seen the various broadcasts, compilations of not-so-close-up images of Saddam meeting with advisors, giving speeches or being greeted by Iraqi civilians, with no clear indication of the date. As an attempt at analysis, pundits and other media monkeys say, “Listen, if a leader wants his people to know that he is still alive, he gets in front of a camera with that days newspaper, points to the date on the cover and says, ‘See. I’m still alive!’”

Okay, assuming the Iraqi leadership’s objective is to let the populace know that the leader is still alive, then that would indeed be the best way to do it.

These same people who have, above, argued reasonably (more about this below) that Saddam is likely dead seem to have no problem abandoning that level of logic in order to promote the following bizarre line of thinking.

Indeed, in an explosion of specious reasoning, they unapologetically claim that protective gear and antidotes found while destroying Iraq are somehow evidence that Iraq is concealing weapons of mass destruction as suspected. Now whether you think Iraq does indeed have WMD or not is irrelevant. The fact that they possess protective gear and antidote is absolutely zero evidence that they possess WMD.

First, who knows how old this stuff is. When Iraq was forced to eliminate their stores of chemical and biological weapons that we sold to them, they were not forced to destroy their protective gear as well. What do you think they would do, volunteer to destroy their protective equipment? Not on your life.

Indeed, most countries that have a military also have such protective gear against chemical and biological agents regardless of their WMD aspirations. It takes little more than pre-school reasoning to conclude that a nation once actively involved in a bio/chem program would be heavily suited with such gear. And, although the media and the Administration would have you believe that a country could possess such protective gear only to protect themselves as they sprayed the opposition with poison, the fact of the matter is that the equipment is defensive in nature.

Following their logic, any reasonable person would have to point to the US, who has millions of such protective outfits and antidotes, as the most likely candidate to use bio/chem weapons. Is that what they think?

Hmmm. Maybe it’s not what they think, it’s what they know. Maybe they're saying these things using the US as their ideological role model. After all, Bush has approved the use of “non-lethal” agents in Iraq, an infraction of international law. Bush also seeks approval to use tactical nuclear weapons in Iraq and elsewhere.

In any event, by rejecting the premise that possession of protective gear equals possession of WMD, we must then reconsider the acceptance of these people’s prior logic regarding the speculative death of Saddam.

But before we do that let's try and reconcile the conflicting level of logic quality used by the media when addressing the two issues (Issue 1. possible death of Saddam and Issue 2. protective gear as evidence of WMD). Here are a few possibilities:

1) Actually, the “See! I’m still alive.” argument is NOT valid as I had first suggested. You see, here, the media forces you to accept the supposition that the primary objective of the Iraqi leadership is to reassure the populace that Saddam is still alive. If you accept that, then the “See! I’m still alive.” argument seems to make some sense.

So what if that supposition is wrong? I know. The Administration is never wrong and neither is the media. But let’s suppose for just one minute that the true objective of the Iraqi leadership was not to prove that Saddam is alive, but rather to give the impression to the Iraqi population that “all is well” in their country. Call me crazy, but jumping on the air with a newspaper and pointing to the date while exclaiming, “See. I’m still alive.” might just be a little disconcerting to the masses, actually striking fear into them rather than confidence. Think about it. If you saw your leader (or Bush) doing that, you would think, “Holy crap. Are things so bad that the leader of this country feels he has to prove to us that he hasn’t been blown away?”

2) Perhaps Freud’s admission is correct, a cigar is just a cigar. Indeed, maybe they’re just idiots and maintaining a consistent line of reasoning is beyond their comprehension (remember, most of them are Republicans). Maybe they don’t know any better than what they’re told by the Administration.

Well, I don’t buy that. True, perhaps their blind partisanship causes them to seek the “shortest route to safety” behind their dumb-as-a-doorknob president in the near term, but in the grand scheme of things, they are simply too devious in their workings. Diabolical minds are many things evil, but stupid is not one of them. I find the next option far more likely.

3) Perhaps the media and the rest of the conservative establishment knows that their logic is in err, but feel they must promote the idea that Iraq holds WMD in order to save face, and preserve their ability to wage further war (Iran, Syria, North Korea, etc.).

Yup. That sounds about right.

In the end, however, no one outside Saddam’s inner circle knows for sure whether he is alive or dead. And that makes me wonder…

“What if?”

Think about this? Saddam has dealt with the western media in the past. He has heard the pundits and politicians and has had time to analyze how they think and propagate those thoughts, how they so easily convince themselves with dubious reasoning and how their arrogance feeds their need to be correct. With this in mind, what if the Iraqi leadership actually presented the recent footage with full knowledge that western media would question its authenticity and lack of time-indicative evidence. Perhaps they knew that the west would conclude that such a “simple” (and flawed) attempt to prove that Saddam was alive, would actually provide evidence that Saddam was dead. Perhaps this was what they wanted everybody to think.

This way, the search for Saddam would be minimized as the west convinces themselves that Saddam is already dead. In the meantime, Saddam is still alive and escapes under the now lax radar.

What if?

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posted by Thomas Ball 10:59 PM