John Kerry may be the luckiest Presidential candidate since Woodrow Wilson, carried into office by the temporary split in the Republican party in 1912, snuck by Charles Hughes to win a second term in 1916 by 11 electoral votes, or perhaps since Harry Truman's come-from-behind victory against Thomas Dewey in 1948. (By the way, if you thought 2000 was bad, check out the election statistics from the 1916 race, viewable at Dave Liep's excellent site. Five states were decided by a margin of less than 1%, including NH by 56 votes and MN by 392 votes. At the same time, Wilson won 3 states with over 85% of the vote, and 6 states with over 75% of the vote – margins not seen even in today's deep-red Plains states. But I digress.)

Why, or rather how, is Kerry lucky? Because the fact that he just three months away from becoming the next President of the United States is due in large part to his opponent's bumbling. Granted, every POTUS's re-election is a referendum on his first term, but the twin factors of inertia and benefit of the doubt are usually enough for even the most mediocre President to earn a second term barring compelling reasons not to give him one.

Consider recent history: in the 20th Century, only five Presidents sought re-election and lost. William H. Taft lost re-election in 1912 largely because his predecessor (and erstwhile Republican) Teddy Roosevelt – dissatisfied by Taft's reluctance to challenge the trusts – ran a third-party campaign, handing the election to Wilson and pushing Taft to third place in the process. Herbert Hoover presided over the 1929 stock market crash and the start of the Great Depression. Gerald Ford suffered from an anti-Nixon/Republican backlash and major economic problems. Jimmy Carter had energy and hostage crises and double digit inflation. And George H.W. Bush governed during slow economic growth (the worse since the Depression), rising unemployment and deficits, the perception of inactivity (or inability) to deal with domestic problems, and hostility from the conservative base.

What of the current President Bush? He gets bad grades on his handling of the economy and domestic affairs, presiding over the worse job losses since the aforementioned Hoover. He has squandered the national unity (and near unanimity) enjoyed post-September 11. He has proven himself a divider, not a uniter, and an uncompassionate conservative. He has thumbed his nose at the rest of the world and alienated allies. He has decimated the military with two wars (one ill-advised and poorly thought out), left Afghanistan to return to tribal warfare, and "lost the peace" in Iraq. The American public have begun to question whether they can trust him, and even the traditional strangleholds Republicans have enjoyed on foreign affairs and strong defense have begun to erode. For Kerry, one might call it a Perfect Political Storm.

One must guard against irrational electoral exuberance, however. We "misunderestimated" Bush in 2000, and despite his current missteps (bad ads, stalled campaign), Karl "Puppetmaster" Rove pulled the rabbit out of the electoral hat four years ago and could still do so again. Which brings me to my point. President Bush’s failed Presidency, lackluster campaign, and a largely cowed media have handed John Kerry the political equivalent of an inside straight. But Kerry needs to close the deal. Voters have opened themselves up to the concept of not voting for Bush, but that's only half the pie. Kerry has to give them a reason to vote for him. So far, he hasn't done so.

A recent LA Times poll puts it starkly: "Among the 59% who say they know enough about Kerry to evaluate him, the Massachusetts senator leads Bush by 10 percentage points; among the 34% who say they don't know Kerry well, Bush leads by 12 percentage points." Polls show that more than half of Kerry’s vote is a vote against Bush rather than a vote for Kerry. While Kerry's ads are largely positive, his stump speech (and the media’s reporting of his campaign) appears anti-Bush, as do the talking points of Kerry’s surrogates, Congressional Democrats, and the ads of pro-Kerry interest groups such as MoveOn and other 527s.

Kerry has three months to sell himself to the American voter. His first opportunity comes in one week's time: his acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention. In September and October, he has the debates. If he’s smart (and I believe he is), Kerry will start selling the idea of his Presidency to the American people. It's not the economy, it's not Iraq, it's not the anti-Bush; it's the Kerry, stupid.