Our ally, Dr. Polkatz, has looked at Gallup's recent results using weights of other polling outfits. The result, instead of a large Bush lead, we have KERRY AHEAD by 4% nationwide.

I did a Monte Carlo spreadsheet to figure out the likeliest true numbers in the Gallup poll. The bottom line: If we use Rasmussen's 36%R-39%D-25%I weights, I get Kerry 50.1%, Bush 46.0%.

Quick explanation:

Someone, myDD or Kos, said Gallup sampled 328 Gops, 236 Dems and 189 Inds. If so, then the percentages are 43.55%R, 31.34%D, and 25%I, respectively, and Gallup's data must be consistent with:

Bush% = 52% = 43.55*(%Gops for Bush) + 31.34*(%Dems for Bush) + 25*(%Inds for Bush)

Kerry% = 44% = 43.55*(%Gops for Kerry) + 31.34*(%Dems for Kerry) + 25*(%Inds for Kerry)

I generated random numbers (on Excel) to plug in for Gops for Bush, etc., selecting those trials that gave me a Bush% of 51.5% - 52.5% (52% is the result of rounding) and Kerry% 43.5% - 44.5%, and then averaged same to determine Gops for Bush, etc. Several samples of 20,000 trials gave results similar to one decimal point.

My estimates:

Gops for Bush 87.1%
Dems for Bush 8.5%
Inds for Bush 45.6%

Gops for Kerry 8.9%
Dems for Kerry 89.2%
Inds for Kerry 48.4%

Plugging these estimates into Rasmussen's weights yields Kerry 50.1%, Bush 46.0%. Not statistically significant, but a far cry from the 52/44 spread announced by Gallup.

And, according to the Votemaster, using Rasmussen's weights at this time in the campaign makes the most sense:

Pollster Scott Rasmussen recently addressed the issue of registered voters vs. likely voters. He said that one of the questions his firm asks is "Please rate your interest in the campaign from 1 to 10." Republicans always score higher on this question. Some firms use this question (often along with a few others such as "Did you vote in 2000?" as a screen to remove unlikely voters from the sample. He also said that in his experience, this screen does not work well until the final weekend of the campaign. For this reason, Rasmussen polls are of all registered voters. If you look on the pollsters (http://www.electoral-vote.com/pollsters) page you can see the most recent result per pollster.

The importance of the difference between RVs and LVs can be seen in a Gallup poll of Ohio conducted Sept. 25-28. Among all registered voters, Kerry is ahead 49% to 46%. Among those voters Gallup thinks are likely to vote, Bush is ahead 49% to 47%. In other words, Gallup thinks Bush will carry Ohio because large numbers of Democrats won't bother to vote. Needless to say, both sides will strive mightily to get out the vote on election day. As an aside, this poll is the first one I have seen in many weeks showing Kerry ahead in crucial Ohio.

In addition, if you look at Gallup's latest results for Pennsylvania, you will see an even more egregious abuse (and infraction of commonsense) of the 'likelihood' bias.

PENNSYLVANIA

Registered voters
Kerry 49 (47)
Bush 45 (47)

Likely voters
Kerry 46 (47)
Bush 49 (48)

The last time Gallup polled Pennsylvania, they had Bush and Kerry tied with registered voters and Bush leading by only 1 point with 'likely' voters.

Now, out of the blue it seems, Gallup is predicting a paradigm shift in voter behavior. While Kerry leads Bush by 4 points in registered voters, Gallup gives Bush the lead by 3 points in the 'likely' voter category. That's an enormous 7 point swing..and an obvious lack assault on consistency.

As we all know Gallup is full of Sh*t. It's time that the mainstream media revealed this bias as they were so eager to do months ago when the LA Times conducted a poll with a Democratic bias.

Some say we should, 'just get over it' because it is just 'nitpicking'.
Needless to say, I heavily disagree. The meme of a strong Bush lead in the polls could be devastating and demoralizing to those would-be Kerry supporters who don't know better.

Thus, I ask that you do your best to further this cause. Let everyone know the truth -- this race is tied. And ultimately Kerry will prevail if Democrats turn up at the polls in November.

Take action and use the "Contact the Media" tool located in the left-most column, just above the Blogrolls on this website to get the contact information of your local media. Let them know of this 'problem' and encourage them to address it.