Over the course of the 2004 Presidential Election cycle, Zogby alone has chosen Kerry as the sizable winner of the November vote. I always enjoy checking out Zogby as a respite from the other, GOP over-weighted polls.

The one thing that's been gnawing at me, though, is the question of whether I'm just securing myself in a reality-proof cell until the fateful day in November. After all, what could Zogby possibly know that the rest of the polling outfits don't?

Check this out. Zogby's 'battleground states' polls for October 6th showed the following:

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That's an electoral vote allocation for these states of:

Bush: 27
Kerry: 150

(For the sake of simplicity, we will ignore the implications of error margin and closeness of the race. The point is that Zogby shows Kerry in the lead in 13 of the 15 'battleground states' on which they've chosen to focus.)

Let's next assume that the remaining states go for the same parties in 2004 that they did in 2000 -- not an unrealistic assumption.

That would bring the total electoral vote allocation to:

Bush: 216
Kerry: 322

A virtual landslide! Please say it's true!

Well, we won't know for sure until November, but I do have some good news for you. Guess which polling outfit has the number one, best-of-the-best, hang-your-hat-on-it accuracy over the last two presidential election cycles?

Give up? Okay, I'll tell you...

ZOGBY!!

In 2000, Zogby was one of several pollsters that was only two cumulative percentage points off from the actual results (i.e. the absolute value of the Zogby:'Gore prediction' and the 'Gore Actual' plus the absolute value of the Zogby:'Bush prediction' and the 'Bush Actual'), but it was the only one in that group to actually choose Gore as the winner (which we all know he was).

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In 1996, Zogby hit the nail right on the head. Sure, everyone predicted a Clinton victory, but Zogby predicted the exact percentage totals for Clinton, Dole...and even Perot at 8%. Unbelievable!

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As an added bonus, Zogby's national poll has Kerry at 50.6% leading Bush at 48.1%.

So if it's accuracy and a proven track record that you're looking for, then stick with Zogby.

... and No. I'm not getting paid by Zogby to hype their site. I guess it just pays to be the best.

Election 2004 :: Polling | Link