Top 35 Trends that say Kerry will Take the White House in November
10/20/04
This election is not just any old presidential election. To Progressives, it's a matter of life and death.
It will be the difference between global respect for America and multilateral cooperation or increased anti-Americanism and never-ending, preemptive unilateral war...the difference between American values of civil liberty and freedom or curbs on inalienable rights and invasions of privacy...the difference between a future of hope, health, safety, peace and prosperity or one of isolation, violence, debt, and fear.
And this brings me to the reason that we will win in November...
...because we have to.
This 'do or die' perception is what is going to drive progressives and moderates to the polls in record numbers to end the madness. This is why the traditionally apathetic 18-24 year old demographic (Also known as 'Future Casualties of Bush Wars') is going to put down their cell phones long enough to pull the lever for Kerry.
So Who's Winning?
Recently, a couple nationwide polls have shown Bush with a substantial lead, including some nonsensical outlier from Fox News and an equally unrealistic poll from Gallup which showed likely voters favoring Bush by 8 points. What's going on?
Fear not. It is all a grand load of garbage!
Remember, a Gallup poll released on October 26, 2000, less than two weeks before the election, had George Bush leading Al Gore by 13 points! Numerous Gallup polls during the final weeks of the 2000 campaign had Bush with ludicrously large leads.
And this time, Gallup has Bush ahead by 8 among likely voters but by 3 among registered voters.
[...]
So how do you go from a 3 point lead among registered voters to an 8 point lead among likely voters? By projecting that 89 percent of registered Bush supporters will vote but only 81 percent of registered Kerry supporters will vote. But as we know, this is totally unrealistic.
Anyway, a Democracy Corps Poll released concurrent to the ridiculous Gallup poll showed Kerry with a 3 point lead.
Remember, in 2000, Democracy Corps' final poll, released five days before the election, was right on the money. In fact, every D.C. poll in the final weeks of the 2000 campaign showed the race to be very, very close.
Also...
* CBS News/NYT (10/19): Kerry 47%, Bush 47% among likely voters (Bush approval at 44%)
* NBC News/WSJ (10/19): Kerry 48%, Bush 48%
* Zogby, the most accurate pollster of the last two presidential elections has the race exactly tied at 45% with 7% still undecided. (Remember. Undecideds tend to break for the challenger. More on that below.)
The national polls however, are just one part of an extensive mosaic of influences on this election. And you might be heartened to know that virtually all the rest favor John Kerry.
Continue reading to discover the...
Top 35 Trends that say Kerry will Take the White House in November
1) Bush must lead by 4%: Professor Alan of the Emerging Democratic Majority shows that Bush must go into November 2 with an average of at least a 4% lead in such polls if he is to have any sort of hope for four more years.
2) The 'Cell Phone Polling' Phenomenon: Traditional polling relies almost exclusively on landline telephone. Unfortunately, according to Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report, as much as 18% of the electorate don't have land lines and instead rely exclusively on cell phones. The Hill gives us a little something about this demographic:
In-Stat.MDR, a wireless market-research firm based in Scottsdale, Ariz., conducted a survey of wireless users in February of this year. Of the 970 people questioned, 14.4 percent were cell-phone-only users, the majority of whom were single Americans between the ages of 18 and 24, living in mostly urban areas.
Anyone care to venture a guess as to how this demographic overwhelmingly votes?
Yup. According to Newsweek (10/16/04), Young voters (18-29) favor Kerry/Edwards by 9 points.
3) Zogby is the Most Accurate Pollster: Zogby, which touts the most accurate polls for the last two presidential elections, calls for a very strong Kerry victory. He has referred to the race as "Kerry's to lose."
In 2000, Zogby was one of several pollsters that was only two cumulative percentage points off from the actual, but it was the only one in that group to actually choose Gore as the winner (which we all know he was).
In 1996, Zogby hit the nail right on the head. Sure, everyone predicted a Clinton victory, but Zogby predicted the exact percentage totals for Clinton, Dole...and even Perot at 8%.
4) Kerry Has Large Lead in Swing States: Kerry is doing extremely well where it matters, leading Bush by 10% in the swing states. According to the Washington post.
5) PA Goes to Kerry:Pennsylvania is NOT in play! (and neither is New Jersey. Don't let the GOP Poll 'Strategic Vision' fool you.) That leaves Ohio and Florida as the next target.
6) Seniors Favor Kerry: Also, Among Registered Voters in a 3-way matchup, seniors favor Kerry over Bush by a large margin. According to Newsweek, Seniors (65+) favor Kerry/Edwards by 15 points, 54-39. The 65+ Category is particularly important in Florida where this age group make up a disproportionately large percentage of the voting population.
7) Kerry Appeals to Independents in the Debates: Polls showed that Kerry gained favor from swing voters as a result of his performance. Many more people had increased positive perceptions of Kerry as a result of the debates than the number of people who an increased positive perception for Bush. Conversely (I think), The number of those whose perception of Kerry grew more negative was less than the number of those whose perception of Bush grew more negative as a result.
8) Kerry Appeals to independents... Period.: In polling, self-proclaimed independents favor Kerry/Edwards by 11 points, 51-40.
9) New Standard for GOTV: GOTV efforts were allocated $25 million by the DNC in the 2000 election cycle. This year they will commit about the same. The difference, however, comes with a new 527 called America Coming Together, a group that will be devoting at least $125 million toward the GOTV effort. They will also be adding an expertise, coordination and organization unseen in prior years.
10) Democrats Won the Registration Wars: Voter Registrations have heavily favored the Democratic party this cycle. Dems have made significant gains on Republicans in numbers of party affiliated registrations in practically every swing state.
Debate Effect
11) Kerry Erased Doubts About Himself: The Debates erased many of the doubts held by undecideds as Kerry showed a man that was poised, consistent, tough, intelligent, able to think on his feet and keep his cool. He was a man with a plan for everything. Dare I say - He was 'presidential'...and he didn't need a transmitter to pull it off. Kerry was also successful in countering the nonsense charges of 'flip-flopping'.
12) Bush Increased Doubts About Himself: The debates raised doubts about Bush. He was inept, incoherent, repetitive, negative, inconsistent and lacking in identity. (Which debate had the 'real' Bush?). He was unable to defend his record and unable to conjure any meaningful new attacks on Kerry. Bush did succeed in one facet of the debates. He succeeded in spurring two rumors that might explain his dubious debate performances. One, that he was "hooked up" to his handlers via a transmitter hidden under his suit coat. And two. That he had suffered a mild stroke or some sort of onsetting dementia.
Now (Election 2004) vs. Then (Election 2000)
13) Ralph Nader: Nader is less of an issue this year, although he could still quite probably throw some swing states to the evil one. In any event, Nader is on the ballot in fewer states (but still on in Florida) than in 2000, and hopefully most Naderites will realize by Nov 2 that four more years of bush will finish the job of destroying everything that they claim to hold dear.
14) Howard Dean: The Dean Revolution has given rise to a new generation of Democratic voters and activists. It has given hope to a previously undercounted, underappreciated and underestimated demographic. It has rewritten the book on how elections are played. Long live Howard Dean. Yaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrhhh!!!
15) Michael Moore: The 'Moore Effect' and Fahrenheit 911. Love it or leave it, polls show that the film had significant influence on the impressions that 'uncommitted' voters had of Bush. In addition, most anecdotal evidence suggests that those self-proclaimed independents who saw it were 'disgusted and disturbed' with Bush - not exactly words of likely Bush voters.
16) George Soros: The Republicans have always had their sugar daddies to fund all their wacky pet projects -- Scaife, Coors, the Waltons, and others. Now we have one that, if not funding all our wacky pet projects, is at least putting his considerable resources toward the same goals. Thank you George Soros.
17) The 527's: The Joint Victory Campaign 2004, a consortium of organizations including Moveon.org, America Coming Together, the Media Fund, America Votes, and the Thunder Road Group along with others have turned this election cycle into one where Democrats have been able to manage a virtual and unprecedented financial parity with the GOP. At the same time, these groups have supplied Democrats with an enormous, talented, organized ground army as well as attack dogs that are able to proxy for the Dems when they couldn't involve themselves directly.
18) Newspaper endorsements: ...not they mean much by themselves, but as a group, an interesting phenomenon is occurring that might cause people to take notice. It seems that those newspapers across the nation that endorsed Gore are now endorsing Kerry - and those papers that endorsed Bush are now endorsing.....uh...well, some are endorsing Bush and some are now endorsing Kerry. Seems quite one-sided. Of course, I'm not suggesting that the editorial pages of America's newspapers represent Joe and Jane voter. But, the fact that prior Bush supporters, whomever they should be, are moving into the Kerry camp, while none of the Gore supporters are turning to Bush seems at least a tad bit telling.
19) The New Progressive Media: Beginnings of a true progressive media: The addition, since the 2000 election, of such institutions as Air America, the Center for American Progress, the Rockridge Institute, and Media Matters, along with the rise of the "progressive web" (Blogs, news and opinion sites, and headline aggregators) have given a new voice and a new outlet with which to air it. This emerges from the cloud of trash emanating from right-wing hate radio, Fox News, the Washington Times, the NY Post, etc. Of course this is just the beginning.
20) Better Informed Public: Voter fraud and intimidation has come under greater scrutiny. Hopefully this will cause the GOP to pause when they enact their schemes.
21) Better Educated Florida Electorate: Florida Voters are more aware and informed. Hopefully, that means that there will be fewer overvotes and undervotes. Hopefully people will know what to do if they feel they are a victim of voter intimidation. Hopefully Jewish seniors won't vote for Pat Buchanan. Hopefully, counties won't dabble in 'Butterfly' ballots.
22) Log Cabin Republicans: Log Cabin Republicans have abandoned Bush. This administration's flagrant and disgraceful bigotry targeted at gays has led the primary GOP organization for gays to forego any endorsement.. This means that the group, instead of sending out literature urging their members to vote for Bush, will be sending out information explaining that the administration's push to amend the constitution to define them as a second class citizenry has forced them to suggest that members stay home on election day. In 2000, one million self-described gays and lesbians voted for Bush (Most were not members of the Log Cabin Republicans organization). Nevertheless, the impact of this refusal to endorse Bush was felt across the demographic.
True, this doesn't mean that Bush will automatically lose one million votes, but consider this. Suppose 95% of those who voted for Bush in 2000 are likely to show up in 2004 as well. Now suppose only 30% of those are fed up enough not to vote (A reasonable, if not conservative estimate). That means 95% x 30% x 1,000,000 = 285,000 fewer votes will make it into Bush's electoral coffers than would otherwise have made it. To counter this effect, one might consider the increased number of votes from Bush's bigoted constituency, those who support the gay marriage amendment and who would not otherwise vote but for this issue.
23) Arab Americans: Arab Americans are abandoning Bush. This demographic went solidly for Bush in 2000. He will not receive their votes this year.
"In just the four battleground states we're polling, over 200,000 Arab American voters have switched from the Republican to the Democratic column," said Jim Zogby, senior analyst for Zogby International, which specializes in Muslim and Arab polling.
A Zogby poll of the four states in September projected a turnout of 510,000 Arab American voters. That includes 120,000 in Florida and 85,000 in Ohio - both of which went to Bush in 2000, along with their combined 46 electoral votes. The poll showed Kerry leading Bush in these states, 47 percent to 31.5 percent, with 9 percent backing independent candidate Ralph Nader.
A second Zogby poll of 1,700 Muslim voters nationwide conducted for Georgetown University showed Kerry leading Bush, 68 percent to 7 percent, with 11 percent backing Nader.
Zogby and other analysts estimate the Muslim electorate at around 2 million voters.
24) Cuban Americans: Bush owes much to the Cuban-American voters, particularly in Florida. Cubans are the only Latin American demographic which clearly favor Republicans and they are a voting force in Florida -- a necessary constituency if Bush hopes to pull Florida out of the bag once again. Recently, the Cuban American Commission for Family Rights announced their disfavor with the administration's policies in the following statement:
President Bush's new Cuban sanctions policy creates more hardship for Cuban Americans, his voting constituency, than to the Cuban government and opens itself up to serious discriminatory legal actions, aside from loss of votes.
This is the first time in the history of U.S. reunification policies that such policy goes against family reunification, discouraging visits and redefining the definition of who is family.
Coattail Indicators
25) Senate Races: NON-incumbent Democrats are running uncharacteristically strong in traditionally conservative strongholds. Dems are favored in such right-wing bastions as Alaska, Colorado, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Oklahoma. And now we can add Kentucky to that list. The same is NOT true for NON-incumbent Republicans in traditional democratic strongholds.
26) Conservative Strongholds: Some conservative strongholds are in play, offering Kerry some nontraditional electoral opportunities including Virginia, North Carolina, Arkansas, and Colorado.
27) Vote Banking: Vote banking, voting prior to November 2nd (Not all states allow this), helped Gore take Iowa in 2000 and continues to help Kerry. This also helps alleviate long lines that typically occur in heavily populated Urban areas (i.e. Democratic Strongholds) on November 2nd and theoretically ensures that your vote gets counted. 'Irregularities' can be addressed prior to election day and voter intimidation is a more difficult prospect for the GOP during this period. Reports indicate that Vote Banking is in full stride, far outpacing any prior year.
Along these lines, early voters, favor Kerry/Edwards by 9, 52-43 (Meaning those voters who voted prior to the official election day).
Common Wisdom
28) The 50% Rule: If an incumbent is experiencing approval ratings below 50%, he or she usually loses. The latest CBS News/NY Times poll gave Bush only a 44% approval rating. The average of the last 5 polls shows Bush's job approval even further below 50%:
* Approve: 46%
* Disapprove: 48.1%
29) Right Track, Wrong Track: Polls say that more people think the country is on the wrong track than those who say the right track. This can hardly work in Bush's favor. People believe the nation under Bush is headed in the wrong direction. The average of the last 11 polls citing whether the nation is heading in the Right/Wrong direction heavily disfavors Bush:
* Right direction: 42%
* Wrong Direction: 52%
30) Incumbent Rule: 'Undecideds' break at least 60-40% for the challenger. Also, an incumbent president rarely gets even more than 1% of the popular vote than the final polls show. If an incumbent is polling, 47%, 48% just before the election, that is probably what he will get. In contrast, the challenger always does much better than the final polls indicate!
31) Reelect: Bush's Reelect numbers are terrible. The average of the last 6 independent polls shows Bush's reelect numbers at:
* Yes: 46.7%
* No: 49.2%
Fire in the Belly
32) Rocketing Gas and Energy Prices: The price of gas serves as a constant reminder of Bush's failures in both foreign and domestic policy. Common wisdom says that people vote their pocket. Indeed, nobody cares what the price is for a barrel of oil ...unless it filters into higher gas and energy prices. This is a material impact on their pockets of average Americans and even if some won't admit it, they blame the problem, at least in part, on the government (currently headed by George W. Bush). People also understand that the invasion of Iraq has 'something' to do with these prices. Sure, Bush supporters are unlikely to vote for Kerry because of this, but it might subconsciously give reason for some to find themselves just a touch too busy to make it to the polls on election day.
33) The Bush Draft: The administration and its minions are trying desperately to quash the spreading speculation of a 'Bush Draft'. Despite their best efforts, the word continues to spread -- and with ill effects for Bush. Bush is helping us to get out the 'cell-phone-only' demographic - people aged 18-24.
34) Expatriates: Non-military expatriates are motivated to remove Bush (as are non-career military personnel). These are the people who have had to deal directly with the lashback from the rampant, Bush-inspired anti-Americanism that has flourished during the last four years.
35) The left is fired up!: This is the key ingredient to ensure maximum turnout by the left on election day. This is one thing we can all thank Bush for. The left is so outraged and disgusted with the policies, lies and crimes of this administration, that we wouldn't stay home on election day if it was raining darts (which is something I'm sure the GOP is working on.)
The bottom line is that Kerry will win on November 2nd.
Remember… life or death -- if not for us, then for our children.
Election 2004
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Link
Great info Tom! This is quite reassuring given the current media spin about the election.
Thank you Tom! I haven't been one to give up and this was really helpful in remembering that HOPE is on the way! The media has not told us the truth!
Brilliant and insightfull
An excellent comilation, Tom. And yes, PA looks very much like it's going blue. (And certainly NJ, where a new poll has Kerry up 13 points, will not be an issue.) Viva the Mid-Atlantic!
Truly inspiring stuff. Now, how do we get the truth about this election into the mainstream national newsmedia? (I know, I know, very disorienting seeing "truth" and "mainstream media" in the same sentence, but we have to reach high here.)
Well Done, Tom! Good to know someone keeps REAL tabs for us ALL. Thank you; keep it up.
Regarding point # 22:
The Log Cabin Republicans' membership base is only about 5,000. The one million votes figure is actually the number of self-identified gay and lesbian voters in the 2000 presidential election, i.e., those voters who chose to reveal their sexual orientation to the pollsters. These one million gay votes represented approximately 25 percent of the known gay and lesbian voting population in the U.S.
Add Barack Obama to the cottails section. The Democrats haven't has such an inspiring leader since the JFK and RFK and Obama has even broader appeal, picking up conservatives in Illinois. He's having a dramatic impact on Illinois politics, and has been working his @$$ off all over the country to get other democrats elected. I don't think even Clinton (were he well and campaigning) could match this guy's pull right now.
i wouldn`t be so sure about victory, kerry has lost quite a bit of black support and even though a lot of people don`t want to re-elect bush he is a known quantity and will people really be willing to take a chance on kerry who seems to have high negatives. only time will tell.
Re this comment:"These are the people who have had to deal directly with the lashback from the rampant, Bush-inspired anti-Americanism that has flourished during the last four years."
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE do no confuse anti-b*sh with anti-americanism - we do distinguish between your non elected pseudo president and his neo-con agenda,and your people and country - GO KERRY
Paul, London, England
Great article!! The Nat'l media likes to put up the most favorable polls for Bu$h day in and day out because they're told to. The polls showing Kerry either winning or tied are shuffled off to the deadletter office. The owner's and Corp. management of all the big networks and cable outlets are Bu$h people and want to creat a Bu$h bandwagon effect just like they did in 2000.
Extremely well done.
And let me offer one more: Most of those polls ask for Nader (who draws from Kerry 2:1 or so) but not Badnarik or Peroutka (Peroutka draws from Bush) or Cobb (who is ignoring swing states). That weights the polls a shade against Kerry, for example in Ohio, where Nader is not on the ballot but Badnarik is.
Indeed, Badnarik (http://badnarik.org)is trying to raise money from progressives, under the rationale that he can capture Republican votes that Kerry cannot.
As a closing question, did that summary of early votes really mean that 5% of the early vote (no undecideds here) is going to third party candidates? The Link was unhelpful on this question.
Please add this #36 as from today Wednesday:
"Polls Show Gains for Kerry Among Women in Electorate"
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/20/politics/campaign/20women.html?oref=login
(Link will decay in a week.)
Regarding point # 22:
Thank you for the heads up. Indeed, it was 'misworded' (Hey if the Bush administration can use that for every gaffe they spew, then I can certainly use it for a blog post. No?)
Anyway, the entry has been updated to reflect the true effect of the Log Cabin refusal to endorse Bush.
Tom- excellent list. It will inspire discussion. I'll blog about it today.
Tom, you're right on the mark! In fact, since so many people have compared Hoover and Bush I decided to go back and look at the 1932 election. FDR took 55% of the vote when no one thought he could win. But Hoover shot himself in the foot with all his rosy predictions -- sound familiar?
Add #37
Panicky seniors and moms about the flu vaccine crisis. This morning's video of old people braving the elements to get rationed flu vaccines was powerful stuff. This could clinch Florida for Kerry. Not the kind of October surprise that we feared, thank goodness.
Sounds great to me, but what are your feelings about the WashPo numbers that show Dumbya's approval AT or ABOVE 50%? That has me worried.
Don't forget Howard Stern. In all the major elections he's taken a side in, his candidate has won: Whitman, Pataki, Giuliani. He's pounding Bush every morning and he has millions of listeners across the country.
You left out "overseas voters," who will generally a) be more motivated this year, b) don't show up in polls, and c) are going to go for Kerry.
The single most comprehensive analysis I've seen yet. You have given me hope! Last night I even dreamed Kerry won! The momentum is now on our side. Everyone should do what they practically can to get out the vote!
THANK YOU for giving me the optimism I have been lacking for a while!! I'm crossing my fingers that Kerry beats the pants off the Idiot in Chief.
WOOOO HOOOO
I LOVE THIS!!! THANK YOU VERY VERY VERY MUCH!!!
GO GO GO
GO DEMOCRATS 2004
I'm glad to see someone put all of this together, to offset any feelings of defeat when people see some of the less reliable polls quoted in the conservative media.
This is getting a lot of attention in the blogosphere. I first saw a link at Kos, and have since referred to this at the official Kerry blog (comments), the Unofficial Kerry for President Blog http://kerryblog.blogspot.com/ (main post) and the Kerry 2004 Reference Library (http://kerrylibrary.forumflash.com)
this is very encouraging. Thank you. Let's WORK and VISUALIZE an empowered left, pushing the new President, John Kerry to "do the right thing".
Would add to the Badnarik note above that Bob Barr and other true "conservatives" are glowing in anger - he's basically said vote for Badnarik, and he won't be alone.
So that's #38.
Anybody have any more?
Pass this article on to all who are "Grieving Democrats" (before the fact). They need to be inspired. BUT, don't inspire them too much...just enough to get them off the Valium and
have them STILL be motivated to get out the door to vote! (AND bring 10 friends with them!!)
This is way too roseate a take on the election. The Republicans could come up with 35 factors at least as persuasive.
I particularly disagree with the more subjective points, such as your take on the debates. People going into the debates prone to dislike Kerry had ample reason to solidify their impression (such as the Mary Cheney comment).
Your strongest point is about Zogby having the best record at predicting outcomes. However, even he is still reading tea leaves, since so many factors make polling completely different this year.
Bottom line: this race is WAY too close to call, but there are many reasons for progressives to be worried and fighting as hard as we can.
#33 The Bush Draft: check the facts. The current draft resolution (which was soundly defeated) had ONLY democratic sponsors and ONLY a handful of dems (NO republicans) voted for it. C'mon, this was a made-up issue.
Asian Americans also endorse Kerry/Edwards officially. This reflects 2.6 million more voting power. This news was just announced, Oct. 20th I believe. It would be a positive thing to include it on your website. Asian American poll numbers run 70% Kerry/Edwards, and 30% Bush/Cheney.
Thank you--this was a very nice birthday present for me! Note also that some of the most intellegent and most-quoted conservative bloggers are leaning towards Kerry, or at the very least, scathingly critical of Bush. This is turning into a battle between the faith-based community and the reality-based one.
Re post by: Justthefactsma'am at October 20, 2004 11:24 PM
The Bush administration *does* have a plan for a draft. It involves people possessing certain skills, such as medical skills. It isn't broad like the Vietnam-era draft, but attempts to ensure the military has sufficient personnel with needed skills.
I would like to encourage people to check out my own idea for facilitating the depoliticization of the abortion issue.
I think this would have a significant impact on our politics if we took it seriously.
http://wetzell.blogspot.com/2004/10/idea-to-help-depoliticize-and-prevent.html
dlw
this is like crack to me right now - i swear it went right to my head. thank you thank you! :-D
THANKS TOM!!
THIS MADE MY HEART
SMILE.
Please do not forget the investigation into the Florida felon list of 2000, where over 90,000 minority votes were disenfranchised. The vast majority of the people on the list were registered democrats. The purpose was to state the persons on the list had felon records and were not allowed to vote. The list has been proven to have thousands of errors and these folks will be voting in this election.
This is Great! Thanks so much!
And also add this reason to the bunch which was in our local paper yesterday - "Sportsmen"
There are several Sportsmen Groups out there advocating that sportsmen should vot for Kerry and NOT Bush. The reason they cite is what is it worth to have all of of these gun rights but there is NO WILDLIFE to shoot. Now even the Great Whatever Grandson of Theodore Roosevelt is out there advocating that people should vote for Kerry. There are several hunter and sportsmen groups advocating for Kerry now. Remember this group was one of the very strongest groups for Bush in the 2000 election. If Bush can even get these people behind him then he is in trouble.
Thanks so much for this again! You have made my day.
Creator Bless!
One more: A sizeable bloc of Bush2000 voters who won't be voting this time around: libertarians. They loved that "no nation building" schtick, among other fantasies. They certainly won't turn around and vote for Kerry -- but many just won't vote.
I only wish that viewpoints like these made it on the news as often as those showing Bush in the lead. Watching the news as a Democrat is really depressing, and I fear it will keep some of us home on Nov. 2 out of hopelessness. If only more people took the time to learn more about the facts than what the mainstream media force-feeds them...
GO KERRY!
(and thanks Dean, from all of us)
FYI -- Texas is UP for GRABS TOO! I know the political consensus says that TX will go for the GOP, but don't bet the farm on it. Democrats & Independents are FIRED UP and should increase the turnout significantly.
In the past the GOP has OUTVOTED the DEMS in Texas 3 to 1. NOT THIS YEAR!
If Kerry wins Texas, the Democrats owe a BUNCH of US an apology. They have literally abandoned us the the Bushies and the Delays of this world.
Reason#36
Michael Moore's "Slacker Uprising Tour" reaching 60 sites in swing states (mostly college campuses) in 30 days, probably getting a live audience of approx 500K, many registrations and volunteers,and energizing the base. Plus getting priceless publicity from braindead repubs who want to have him prosecuted for "bribing" college kids w/underwear and Ramen Noodles. Long live the great unwashed slackers, and God bless Michael Moore.
Great list. One more thing to watch. If the Astros win tonight, it will be a Boston/Texas World Series. The Sox will beat the curse, and Kerry will beat the Texan.
Thanks for all this information, and please figure out a way to get this out to the news media. They are reporting the poll and the swing state information so one sided that it will cost Kerry some votes if someone does not get the truth out to the public.
Kerry I have your back-GO TO VICTORY, AND GET OUR COUNTRY BACK
Don't be overly optimistic--this isn't a slam dunk for Kerry yet.
Here's a link where you can test different EC scenarios. Neither candidate should feel safe.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2004/politics101/politics101_ecmap.html
After reading CNN's reports that Bush is ahead in all the swing states, this was a refreshing change. Comprehensive and well thought out! Thanks!
I know many who consider themselves political conservatives that may choose to vote Libertarian in Ohio this time. Many consider this election a choice between "Bad" and "Worse" as both major candidates seem determined to spend the US into bankruptcy in their efforts to buy votes. (i.e. US could become the next Argentina)
I consider it interesting that the Associate Press voters guide for Cleveland, Ohio ( http://www.cleveland.com/election/voterguide/ ) doesn't list either Michael Badnarik or Michael Peroutka as presidential candidates for Ohio. CNN’s voter’s guide ( http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/pre/OH/H/14/index.html ) has the same problem… Negligence or intentional ??
If the Ohio ballot had a “None-of-the-above” selection available, None-of-the-above” might take the election in Ohio… Especially in light of the growing disgust at the negative ads right now.
One thing that is really going to hurt Kerry is his "Army-of-lawyers" that he has announced he has ready to contest any questionable results ( http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6282404/ ). The 10,000 lawyers ready and waiting to contest the results is a big turn-off to the undecideds (who's paying that bill? Lawyers don't even wave without billing for it.). I think that particular announcement was a big mistake. Yes it put the opposition on notice, and that announcement also may have lost many of the swing voters that might have considered Kerry as a viable alternative.
Ground Zero in Cleveland Ohio.
Re: ...please figure out a way to get this out to the news media. -- Brenda
Thanks to Eric Alterman, whose Altercation blog can be found on the MSNBC home page, it's out there. Calling all Dems: It's time to turn off the TV of negativity and talk to people instead. Tell them why you like Kerry, and why you think he will be a better president. It's real, it's free, and it will keep you fired up. Get out the vote!
Hey I have made an analogy between NY/Boston and Bush/Kerry. First think of where each convention was held. Think of which candidate and which team has more money. There are alot of people who like the Yankees/Bush and alot of people who are cheering for Kerry/Boston because they are not Yankees/Bush. Before the debates/game 4, Bush/Yankees were in the drivers seat and just had to win one debate/game to crush their opponents hopes and dreams. Somehow, Kerry/Boston won three games/debates in a row usually in dramatic fashion. There were even two games/debate at fenway/traditional debate style and one where Bush/yankees had townhall setting/yankee stadium. The only question that remains of course is will Kerry win as impressively as Boston did in game 7 in the final election
bush has created a national climate that will facilitate his own defeat-now that is really stupid!as a political junkie and serious political astrologer, Kerry's aspects beat out Bush's now and on Nov 2 - however, there will be a post elect "slugfest"-lawsuit "love-in" with a close race-but kerry, soonafter, will emerge: THE WINNER
Way to be positive... too bad your candidate is a hack... I know, I know, he served in Vietnam... so did thousands of others (I assume you voted for Dole in '96 because he served and Clinton didn't)
Anyway... it's good to be positive, please just don't be a bitter loser like Al Gore was in 2000.
Four More
CAUGHT YA!
I just posted a message at 5:54pm AMERICAN Central time...it says my post was at 10:54pm... which means, my friends this is not an AMERICAN site.... Don't let the SOCIALIST liberals influence you vote...
Also- If Kerry had is way... Sadaam would still be in Kuwait.... you can say no, but that's how he voted.... sorry.
From your mouth to Gods hear.
If Bush wins, I truly believe we have lost our Democracy!!
Those whom the Gods wish to humble, they first make great. The power of the neo-cons and right wing religious in America have never been greater than under Mr. President Select. I hope the progressive voters this year turn out in enough numbers to serve up a nice steaming dish of humble pie. Thanks for the encouragement.
Bless you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bless you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
this reminds me of 1960 all over again. including the morphing of bush into nixon. I thought nixon was evil until I looked long and hard at bush. We have another item to add to the list: the election of 2000. Kerry will use Bronx bare knuckle attorneys this time. The mob this time will be us.
Thanks for the much needed encouragement! Like Jess above said, "This is turning into a battle between the faith-based community and the reality-based one." PLEEEASE VOTE!!!
If we can only keep them from stealing it.
They must keep Bush in office. They desperately need to keep it...If they fail, It would be good to buy stock in paper shreaders. They have a lot of poop to try to cover very quickly. I fear they will steal it or use other devious means to keep Bush in the office. It is scary.
thank you for giving home to a democrat in virginia. i think we shouldn't be too optimistic and we shouldn't be euphoric. but i'm happy to see some good stuff in the news, regardless of the stupid conservative crap about the gay jewish liberal media, there is no unbiased news anymore.
66.235.199.181 US UNITED STATES CALIFORNIA SANTA MONICA IPOWERWEB INC
As Howard Dean stated so eloquently earier this year;YEAAAAAAH! I have been obsessed with this election since June 25th. F9/11 came out. There has never been an election that compares. We need him out! I was at the Michael Moore rally in Seattle on the 19th. Eddie Vedder opened. The energy, enthusiasm, hope, and above all, the Unity in the room, was nothing like I have witnessed before. Michael asked us all to say the words; President Kerry.YEAAAAH!
No one watches television news, unless it's the Daily Show. The corporatists have whored the media to such an extent that everyone knows what it offers isn't "news" at all. I don't think the Democratic base is discouraged...I think we're turbocharged and ready to hurl this monster out of office. I can't WAIT TO VOTE!
Ok folks- The reason The GOP is registering everyone as republican is so when the Diebold Techs upload the new vote tallies, there won't be ant nasty glaring discrepancies.
Be aware of new voting rules in Florida released on Oct 18th. For manual recounts on Touch-screen machines, the end of day paper tally will be looked at. If it's different, the machine tally is used. What?
It's like we all have to stay at the polls with our hands in the air on Nov 2 All day and maybe for a few days afterward, too!
Re: #34
I mailed my absentee ballot from Montreal last Friday. When he saw it, the clerk exclaimed, "Another one!" I asked if he was seeing a high turn out. He just said "Incredible."
Before I left we both agreed that a lot of things needed to be changed in America. This is going to happen folks!
Thank you for the perspective! I advise all Kerry supporters to disregard the corporate media polls and cable news outlets from now until November 2nd!
They can't tell what's going on and only wish to discourage us with lies about a mythic Bush lead!
Instead, do all you can to get out the vote! I've been working this entire month to help seniors and apartment dwellers in Democratic areas vote via absentee ballots! Then I will also be giving rides to the polls next week and on November 2nd!
This is where you should place your energy - not watching the stupid horse race. Go out and deliver votes to Kerry - regardless of what state you live in!
Kerry in a Landslide! See it! Feel it! KNOW IT! DO IT! OWN IT!
stupid people, just one bomb,just one small nuu clee rrrrrrrr device set off in the country,and your lives as you know it will all come to and end. THINK!!
You wanna talk about sheep,you all follow neo-ami-commies.just look to who your gods aspire to.
GO GEORGE GO
#36 Stem Cell effect! How about all the families who have family members who have illnesses that could be helped by Stem Cell Research?
to richard:
wow, you are one sick puppy. i hope you live in texas or georgia - where your vote won't matter
Nice analysis. I'm in Europe and i can tell you that a very large majority of the overseas vote will be for Kerry. I personally know 3 people who did not vote in the last elections and are voting this time around. All Kerry. We're not subject to the bias of U.S. mainstream media.
Keep up the good work!
The best analysis I have seen.
Back in 2002, I wrote an article on the problem with polling and using my own data from my own polling said Gray Davis would be recalled, after winning reelection of course. This was a month before he was re-elected. Only one paper picked up the article.
This year, in July I wrote about a shift in power with the Bush decimation of the conservative coalition. The shift involves a Kerry electoral landslide and the Democrats controlling at the very least the Senate, and most likely the house as well. Not one paper picked up this article.
Isn't it interesing how usually the media talk over and over about money being spent on the campaigns, but this time with the rise of the internet and money from small donors so huge and going to Kerry it's not on the radar in the media? Very interesting.
Bush gets compared to Hoover so much that I hope the election results will look like this.
www.nationmaster.com/encyclopedia/U.S.-presidential-election,-1932
NOTE: Red is for Roosevelt in this case.
Terrific analysis.
Re: #3, while it's clear that Zogby is very accurate, it is also troubling that Gallup was the second-most accurate pollster. Today, Zogby and Gallup are miles apart - not surprising given Gallup's inexplicably skewed samples.
I'm a volunteer for the K-E Campaign in Florida and I cannot emphasize strongly enough the importance of #27: vote banking. This year in Florida, very much unlike 2000, polls are open for TWO FULL WEEKS INCLUDING WEEEKENDS leading up to Nov. 2 (not all polls, but a large number of them). Any registered voter can vote at any early voting site (not nec. the one for their precicnt). This gives our base 2 full weeks get to the polls instead of one hectic day - and also gives the campaign and its legion of motivated poll watchers, lawyers and other volunteers (like me) time to address any issues that may arrise. Of course, Bush voters can vote early too, but we all know that making voting more accessable by definition favors Dems, which is why the Republicans are all about voting restrictions and disenfranchising black voters.
So far, turnout at the Early Voting sites has been terrific, especially in Dem. base areas. We're having huge vote early rallies all weekend, featuring people like the Black Eyed Peas, Hillary Clinton and many others. Stay tuned . . .
We need to go Sinclair on the news outlets like CNN, MSNBC and Fox.
We all should be emailing them and threatening to boycott their advertisers and turn off their stations unless they start reporting accurately what's going on.
If Zogby showed a Bush lead today you can bet they'd use that poll then, so why not use it now?
The irony is that they "news media" is biting the hand that feeds it. People who are informed enough to know they are full of shit are exactly their target audience, the "news junkie demographic if you will.
There are more democrats than republicans overal so they are really screwing themselves if we refuse to take it.
Also:It's time for the internet to start spilling out into the street.
we all need to really start doing some volunteer time with the Kerry campaign.
I'm going to Wisconsin this weekend and next ( I live in Illinois ) and I'll do whatever they tell me. During the week I am volunteering at calling centers near me ( can't take anyting for granted )
The time have come for all of us internet geeks to mobilize. We can make a difference.
As time draws near to November 2nd, one needs to read what has been written by Tom Ball so not to get discouraged. Kerry is what America needs now, not fear-mongering but HOPE! Make sure everyone votes....our life may depend on it!
Also another thing we need to be doing is going to http://www.thehill.com and writing to congress ( there is an easy to use section there for writing to congress, lower right hand corner of page America Reacts:write to congress ), demanding that the CIA report that is being supressed by Poter Goss since June be released immediately. This is the report which names names and assigns blame for the leadup to 9-11.
They are doing everythng they can to supress it. Send an email to your firends and ask them to write to congress to.
I've already got a mailer I'm using that I've sent to everyone I know, so if you want me to send it to you for your use, email me at uns8ed@nowhereweb.com
one of the best "synopses" i've seen. you're not just trying to make me feel good, are you ? i'm staying the summer in vancouver, and have a new health condition - depression. (taking vites, celexa, drinking water ... i'll be all right) this makes me wonder - how much of my angst during the last 4 years is related to bu$h and 9-11 ? sending bu$h back to crawford - the ultimate anti-depressant ?
I live in the mountains of North Carolina--right in the heart of Bush country, and I'm amazed at how many people have turned Kerry. I have a 92 yr. old uncle who has voted Republican in EVERY election he's ever voted in. He's voting Kerry this year.
thank you for you insight.
it was great to have it all put together in one place. the draft (i suspect) is coming. there is no way we can take care of Iraq without the draft. as for the rest i believe that Kerry will win. He has my vote.
Recap-of posted "reasons"-
#36 Women
#37 Stem Cells
#38 Red Socks
New-"reasons"-
#39 The Left's answer to right-wing talk-radio.....books by people who matter (as opposed to Ann Coulter and Bill O'Reilly..who don't).
Richard Clark,
John Dean,
Paul O'Neill,
Joseph Wilson, and
Senator Robert Byrd, to name a few.
#40 Right-wing-media's backfiring propoganda:
In their desire to convince everyone that Bush is winning, the right is unwittingly making uninformed republicans less likely to vote and Bush/HitlerJr.-fearing democrats more likely to vote.
This is a great read. Makes me feel all warm inside. I'm not one to pray much, but I will say that I am praying for Kerry to take the Presidency. He must win. Four more years of Bush's arrogant, fanatical, idiotic ideals and it will kill me, or I will kill myself one!
A proud Ohio Kerry supporter till the very end!
Mikey Boy, are you doing everything you can possibly do up there? Please volunteer some time to the campaign, email all your friends and make sure they are voting, send them a link to http://www.buzzflash.com so they can learn some things if they haven't already. Mikey, your efforts could literally save the world. I'd be up there right now if I could. I am going to help out in Wisconsin. ( I am in Illinois )
Kerry just has to win.
I noticed you said, "A Kerry supporter till the end" If Kerry doesn't win, that's exactly what we may be facing: The end.
RE: The Bush Draft: check the facts. The current draft resolution (which was soundly defeated) had ONLY democratic sponsors and ONLY a handful of dems (NO republicansvoted for it. C'mon, this was a made-up issue."
This post suffers from two failings:
1) It misses the point. Item 33 refers to the political power of rumors of the draft; not to the certainty of the draft itself...and
2) The current draft resolution cited by JUSTTHE FACTS is irrelevant. Despite administration denials, the current colonial adventurism the neo-cons have undertaken can only be supported, tactically, by a radically expanded military. That means draft.
The draft billl you are referring to was introduced by Charlie Rangle a Democratic Senator. This bill is oft misuderstood. The dems introduced it in order to make a point before the Iraq war, the point being that if the neo-cons were so hell bent on war, it just might have to be their children who end up fighting it. It was a protest bill.
My thoughts are if Bush is re-elected, we will be hit ( probably overseas, an embassy or something ) by terrorists who have "links" to Iran.
This will give Bush all the rationale he needs to go back on his word and tell the American people that "insert date of terrorist attack here" changed everything.
The military has come up short of it's recruiting efforts going on four months in a row now.
Wow! Thank you for making my day. I now do believe that we can all get Kerry elected if we just VOTE! I look forward to seeing bush go back to shoveling his holy shit back in Texas where he belongs.
Thank you from a life long Democrat who protested the Vietnam war and tried to get Eugene McCarthy on the ballot.
The 35 trends are encouraging and comforting to know, but don't they all go out the window if the Administration has Osama on ice and releases the news on November 1st?
Thanks for this great list. It really helps my outlook, especially when, after proclaiming the youth vote is impossible to predict, the pundits go on to cite every poll from both ends of the political spectrum, NONE of which account for that youth vote. If they truly believe the youth vote is not measurable at this point(and I do believe that is the case) then SHUT UP already about the freakin' polls!
Also, you should either add Howard Stern, the Daily Show and the Slacker tour to your #15 Michael Moore item; or add each as a separate item. I'll bet you can take this up to 50 trends. Go for it. Also add yesterday's announcement of American Muslim support of Kerry: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-muslims22oct22,1,4414246.story
I've been invloved with voter registration in my neighborhood and can't tell you how many people - young and not-so-young - who have registered to vote for the very first time. These people are fervent and on a mission. They overwhelmingly register as Democrats (and no, I am not a paid for my time). There is a palpable concern about the future that is giving rise to a tremendous energy, and I do believe this will help us send the cowboy back to his ranch for good.
Some good links:
Students overwhelmingly for Kerry:
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-youth22oct22,1,6351372.story?coll=la-home-politics
Former conservative Republican senator from Kentucky supports Kerry:
http://www.courier-journal.com/cjextra/editorials/2004/10/20/oped-marlow1020-8060.html
Charlie Reese, conservative, supports Kerry (article from Orlando Sentinel)
http://www.lewrockwell.com/reese/reese74.html
William Milliken, a moderate Republican, (former Governor of Michigan) supports Kerry:
http://www.freep.com/news/statewire/sw105859_20041018.htm
Six of Bush's second cousins organized to get W out of office:
www.bushrelativesforkerry.com
Thanks again for your wonderful list.
Unscientific bumper sticker counting poll:
I drive 36 miles round trip to work each day in a Republican "Navy" town. I count bumper stickers and we are running 3:1 on most days in favor of Kerry.
Tom -- excellent analysis -- and very encouraging!
Re: One thing that is really going to hurt Kerry is his "Army-of-lawyers" that he has announced he has ready to contest any questionable results ( http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6282404/ ). The 10,000 lawyers ready and waiting to contest the results is a big turn-off to the undecideds (who's paying that bill? Lawyers don't even wave without billing for it.).
Mike -- Thousands of lawyers across the country are donating our services to this election, without charge -- it's called pro bono work, and I think most people would be surprised at how many dedicated lawyers there are out there who devote countless hours every year to the representation of worthy causes, and indigent clients, for free. This year, lawyers nationwide are donating their time to fighting election fraud in all its ugly manifestations.
Here in PA, we have been working literally around the clock fighting to keep Ralph Nader off our ballot -- in large part because the effort to get him on the ballot was the product of what several of our judges, who have been on the bench for decades, are calling the most pervasive, egregious election fraud they have ever seen. (In fact, the vast majority of the signatures on Nader's nomination petition in PA were found to be fraudulent.) We have won in PA -- the fraudulent attempt to get Nader on our ballot(supported, of course, by the Republicans) has been rejected by PA's highest court.
Lawyers across the country will also be out at the polling stations on election day, donating their time to ensure that the election is conducted legally, without fraud or intimidation, and that people who come to vote are not unlawfully denied their right to do so. (Check out www.lawyerscomm.org for information on this nationwide legal effort.)
Kerry has brought in a team of lawyers to ensure that our country isn't victimized by another stolen election. Like it or not, that is a task that lawyers are uniquely qualified to perform. I would not be at all surprised to learn that many of them are prepared to do so free of charge.
If you think people are turned off by the prospect of lawyers stepping in to fight an attempt to steal this election, just imagine the outcome if they didn't.
I wish I had your confidence, but it is nice to know that somebody other than the campaign's masters do. I hope to God you are right (yes, a progressive used the word God!). Looking forward to our (at the very least) electoral landslide!!!
I PRAY your predictions are right ... thank you!
Just read Arnold is planning to travel with Bush in Ohio this weekend ... I thought he told him he couldn't campaign with him because the people in California needed him ... another LIAR.
Regarding the post by Brett who was shocked that the timestamp on his post was in GMT, or Zulu time, rather than in Eastern time. If the use of GMT to mark times in a website that would presumably get posts from all over the world as well as the USA makes it a Commie web site, then how about the use of Zulu time as a common time zone by the US military?
Ever see an action flick by the likes of Tom Clancy, or the drama series JAG? Look closely, Brett, and there it is on the screen: the time of action in each scene is in Zulu time, even when the action is right there in the Pentagon!
Besides, the real Communist nations don't use Zulu time anyway. The former Soviet Union, which is no longer Communist (Putin just endorsed the re-election of GWB), has 11 time zones, the closest to Zulu being 3 to 5 hours ahead of it. Or do you think that Great Britain is a Communist nation?
Complain about something that MATTERS, Brett, and don't read anything into the time zones. As Freud would have said, sometimes a clock is just a clock.
Tracey, thanks for info.
Mike -- Thousands of lawyers across the country are donating our services to this election, without charge -- it's called pro bono work, and I think most people would be surprised at how many dedicated lawyers there are out there who devote countless hours every year to the representation of worthy causes, and indigent clients, for free..... (You are probably right)
.
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I would not be at all surprised to learn that many of them are prepared to do so free of charge. ....(but not all... Oh well...)
No offence intended, but threatening to unleash a herd of lawyers just adds to the "stench factor" of the current elections process. And plays into the Republican "fear-mongering" about trial lawyers.(My opinion)
Like it or not, lawyers are sometimes used as weapons in today's environment to stifle competition, force cooperation or just intimidate people (Take a look at the RIAA's activities for how not to win friends on the college campuses) So it should come as no surprise that they (lawyers) are not generally looked upon in a positive light. Regardless of the dedication and high standards of some, the highly publicised antics and indiscretions of the few will color the public's perceptions of the entire profession. And these less than positive perceptions may have a less-than-positive ripple effect on the campaign. (My opinion again)
You can put this one in the bag for Kerry/Edwards. Bush has caused so many screw-ups, he can't possibly save himself in these last few days. Believe Zogby----It's over for the Bushies!!! Thank God for huge favors.
Great post, thanks. I live in Arkansas and according to the pollsters, Bush has an 8 point lead. However, my husband and I have a business that deals with the public. At times we have 100 people or more in our facility at one time and the election is a favored topic. I can tell you that from the feedback I am getting, Arkansas is VERY much in play. A drive through the most expensive neighborhoods in the state will reveal an abundance of Kerry signs. Letters to the statewide paper have been trending much more heavily in Kerry's favor. (Our state-wide newspaper is very right-leaning). I also think that in addition to the cell-phone generation, (18-24 year olds), another demographic that will play a large role in the outcome of the election, and is extremely difficult to poll, is the newly-registered voters. I believe in my heart and have for many months now that Kerry will win, and win decisively. I predict it will be 55% Kerry, 43% Bush, 2% Nader/Others. I am very excited and plan to vote early on Monday. I am also going to volunteer to drive people to the polls. Democrats are energized and mobilized in a way I have not witnessed in my lifetime. We are about to take back our country.
Something else to consider:
We really have to concurrent races: national and swing-state. The two couldn't be any farther apart. Almost 4/5 of this entire country doesn't see a SINGLE political ad, nor do they have the candidates or even high-level surrogates come to town and draw local coverage. In these 38 or 40 states, the red states are redder than the blue states are blue (in other words, Bush's margin is much bigger in his states than Kerry's is in his states).
Juxtapose that with the 10 or so battleground states where political ads blanket the television and radio airwaves, candidates visit regularly and the respective campaings organize tons of rallies and other get-out-the-vote activities. In these states, Kerry is doing significantly better - by some measures up by almost 10% across all the so-called battlegrounds.
IMO, discount or dismiss entirely all the national polling and instead focus ONLY on the swing states. The fact that Kerry is ahead or close in nearly all battleground states, given the numerous points already raised about the Encumbant 50-percent Rule, the lack of cell phone polling, new voter registrations, active get-out-the-vote, etc, means this thing is beginning to look real good for Kerry. I mean real good.
Wow, this is so great to read! I am an 18 year Texan that takes pride in canceling out a republican vote! Its surprising the amount of Kerry support in my town, signs are everywhere and I live in a very conservative town. The momentum felt is wonderful, we are definetly ready to take on Bush here! I hope I can see Kerry take the role of President, it would be a wonder gift not only to our country but to the world!
thanks for this welcome info--a great day for this great country---
The Cell Phone Voter Gap
Why US Pollsters Need a Wake-Up Call
by John Avlon
Every poll you’ve read this year may be wrong. The reason is in your pocket – your cell phone. Democrats and Republicans have been slow to adjust their industrial-age strategies to this information age reality. The price could be a rude awakening on Election Day.
This is the first presidential election held since cell phones began to replace traditional phones in American homes in significant numbers. There are now 177 million cell phone users the United States, an increase of 70 million in the past four years alone. According to the Yankee Group’s Mobile User Survey, 6 percent of all adult cell phone users have "cut the cord" – stopping their landline service altogether. This number doubles to 12 percent for the coveted demographic of adults under 35 and climbs even higher for college-age Americans. This amounts to millions of people who are currently not counted in the public opinion polls we’re inundated with during this election season.
There is no national cell phone directory, no 411 that can be called. Cell phones are portable, so the New York number you dial could connect with a person living in San Francisco or Tokyo, throwing off voter samples. Plus, it’s actually illegal for pollsters to charge a person for a call they make, and cell phone users’ minutes tick off whether they make or receive a call. The combination of all these factors means that traditional polling firms – which still rely on call lists of landline voters – are at a loss, with no clear idea of how to adapt. To make matters worse, the implementation of Do Not Call Lists and the changing ways people use their phones at home means that response rates have dropped from 40% to 25% - itself an isolating factor. In industry-wide ostrich-like denial, polling firms have not changed their techniques to adjust for the changes in the way Americans live. The result could be a real October surprise.
America has seen an election where the polls were dramatically off because of limits in technology and imagination. In 1936, the prestigious Literary Digest poll confidently predicted a victory for Kansas Republican Alf Landon over first term Democratic incumbent President Franklin Delano Roosevelt. This proved to be a bit of wishful thinking. The problem was that the Literary Digest poll sent out its survey postcards according to addresses it got from telephone books and automobile registries. Seven years into the Great Depression, folks who had private cars and home telephones tended to be rich – and Republican. Roosevelt won the election in a landslide.
So what does the cell phone gap in this year’s polling mean for the 2004 election? While no comprehensive study of cell phone-alone voters’ politics has been completed, the demographics seem to favor the Democrats. Young Americans are not as knee-jerk liberal as they were in the past – they’re more likely to be Independent than Democrat or Republican. But one way of indicating how they might break is that among likely voters under thirty, Kerry leads Bush by 52 percent to 42 percent in a post-debates Newsweek/GenNext poll. Likewise, an October Gallup poll showed Independent voters nationwide favoring Kerry by 53 percent to Bush’s 39 percent and the Independent-labeled candidate Ralph Nader’s 4%. In addition, singles, single-parents and lower-income individuals are more likely to cut the chord than their married counterparts making over $75,000 a year – a class division between the rootless and the rooted that traditionally benefits Democrats.
But perhaps the biggest area of concern for Republicans comes from the urban location of many cell phone-alone users. Re
